Ethiopia's pursuit of Red Sea access is sparking a delicate diplomatic dance with its neighbours, according to renowned political analyst Lawrence Freeman. In an exclusive interview with OBN English, Freeman highlighted the complexities and potential benefits of Ethiopia's strategy, emphasising the need for peaceful negotiations to secure a crucial seaport.
Freeman underscored the historical sensitivities involved, acknowledging lingering resentment stemming from past colonial policies.
He emphasised that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s stated goal is to peacefully negotiate access to a Red Sea port, a process that will require intricate discussions with Eritrea, Somalia, and Somaliland. Currently, tensions might remain high between Ethiopia and Eritrea, a situation Freeman hopes will be resolved, allowing both nations to honour their 2018 economic cooperation agreement.
The analyst emphasised the multifaceted nature of the negotiations, stating that discussions are underway with neighbouring countries.
He argued that a peaceful resolution to grant Ethiopia greater access to Red Sea trade routes is in everyone's interest, particularly given the significant economic development represented by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Freeman pointed out that Ethiopia's growing economy, the largest in the region, would benefit neighbouring countries through increased economic cooperation.
Freeman referenced the 1993 agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which stipulated that the port of Assab would remain under Eritrean control following Eritrea's independence. While acknowledging that the wisdom of that agreement could be debated, Freeman emphasised that Ethiopia must now engage in negotiations with its sovereign neighbours. He proposed that peaceful and thoughtful negotiations, based on mutual self-interest, are the only viable path forward.
He argued that increased economic flow via ports in Eritrea, Somalia, or Somaliland would benefit all involved nations. The core of Freeman’s perspective lies in finding solutions through cooperation: "countries cooperating in their self-interest and the interest of the other," he stated, highlighting this as the ideal pathway for future diplomacy.
Freeman's recent two-week visit to Ethiopia, his twelfth, provided firsthand insights into the nation's economic progress. He cited infrastructural developments in Addis Ababa, funded by its citizens, as well as visits to various manufacturing sites, farms (both irrigated and non-irrigated), a sugar factory, and a steel factory. Meetings with government officials further enhanced his understanding of the situation. His observations paint a picture of an evolving economic landscape, adding weight to the argument for Ethiopia's need for increased access to international trade routes.
The potential benefits of improved trade access extend beyond Ethiopia's borders. Regional stability and economic growth are intrinsically linked, and securing a peaceful resolution for Ethiopia's port access could foster increased cooperation and development throughout the Horn of Africa. The success of these negotiations will depend heavily on all parties' willingness to engage in constructive dialogue, acknowledging shared interests and mitigating historical grievances.
The diplomatic efforts are not without challenges. The complex history and existing tensions between Ethiopia and its neighbours necessitate careful and sensitive negotiations. The long-term implications of a successful outcome could, however, reshape the region's economic and political landscape, potentially promoting lasting peace and prosperity. The path ahead requires a delicate balance of assertive diplomacy and mutual understanding. The coming months will be crucial in determining the success of Ethiopia's efforts to gain vital access to the Red Sea and, consequently, the global marketplace. The international community watches with bated breath as this critical diplomatic process unfolds.