By: Yohannes Fentahun
National Dialogues vary greatly in its success and failure depending on a multitude of factors including Political context, Inclusivity of participants, Sincerity of the government, and the level of external support. Furthermore, identifying topical issues and designing specific strategies besides evaluating mechanisms to reach desired goals. In this short article the writer tried to bring fact-based analysis on factors influencing the success and failure of National Dialogues across the world and share experience for the success of the ongoing Ethiopian National Dialogue discourse.
The success of National Dialogue centers on several critical factors. Inclusivity stands at the forefront, ensuring that all actors with critical stake, including government representatives, opposition groups, civic society actors, and marginalized groups, have to make their issues to be tabled. This inclusivity ensures that dialogue addresses the concerns and aspirations of all segments of the society, increasing the likelihood of sustainable agreements through discussion.
Genuine political will and commitment from all actors involved are imperative, demonstrating a sincere dedication to resolve differences and fostering mutual understanding. Without political will, dialogue processes can easily stall because of competing interests.
External support and mediation can also play a pivotal role while derailing the trajectory of the issue at hand, providing impartial facilitation, technical expertise, and resources to guide the dialogue process. Facilitators such as International Organizations or mediators can play a constructive role in facilitating and supporting dialogues. Their involvement can provide impartiality, technical expertise, and resources necessary for the success of the process.
Clear objectives and a well-defined agenda help to keep focus and drive discussions towards tangible outcomes. Establishing realistic goals and timelines can prevent the dialogue from becoming overly ambitious. Tunisians best practice can be good case in point.
Trust-building measures, such as ceasefire agreements or confidence-building measures like prisoner releases or humanitarian gestures, are essential for creating an environment conducive to constructive dialogue and can help overcome initial skepticism and promote cooperation. When these factors align, national dialogue can become a powerful tool for addressing grievances, reconciling differences, and laying the groundwork for sustainable peace and development.
On the contrary, the failure of national dialogue often stems from a combination of key factors. Exclusion of crucial stakeholders, particularly oppositions and marginalized groups, undermines the legitimacy of National Dialogue eventually leads to unrepresentative outcomes where Yemenis agreed to pick up arms to settle their difference than through dialogue. Without genuine political commitment from all parties, dialogue processes can become mere symbolic gesture without substantive results.
External meddling from actors without visible vested interests can distort the dialogue's agenda and erode trust among participants. Deep-seated distrust and historical grievances can also hinder meaningful dialogue, perpetuating cycles of conflict and polarization. Moreover, the absence of effective implementation mechanisms to enforce agreed-upon outcomes renders the dialogue futile, as promises made at the negotiating table remain unfulfilled.
Ethiopia can draw lessons from successful national dialogue processes in other countries, such as South Africa's post-apartheid Truth and Reconciliation Commission or Kenya's National Accord and Reconciliation Act, which helped to mitigate political violence following disputed elections in 2007. These experiences highlight the importance of inclusivity, political will, and robust implementation mechanisms in fostering reconciliation and national unity.
Indeed, Ethiopia can also learn from its missed opportunities for dialogue and reconciliation during periods of political transition. The current national dialogue in Ethiopia should prioritize the participation of all relevant stakeholders; including opposition groups, regional leaders, and civil society representatives, to ensure that diverse voices are heard and legitimate grievances are addressed.
Furthermore, the Ethiopian government must demonstrate genuine commitment to the dialogue process by implementing confidence-building measures, such as releasing political prisoners, facilitating humanitarian access to conflict-affected areas, and engaging in good-faith negotiations with opposition groups.
External actors, including regional organizations and international mediators, can provide valuable support and facilitate dialogue between conflicting parties. However, their involvement should respect Ethiopia's National Interest besides guided by principles of Neutrality and Impartiality. The outcomes of the National Dialogue must be translated into concrete actions through the establishment of implementation mechanisms, such as oversight committees, legislative and institutional reforms to ensure that agreed-upon elements are effectively implemented and monitored over time.
In conclusion, the success of Ethiopia's ongoing national dialogue will depend on the genuine commitment of all stakeholders, the inclusivity of the process, and the implementation of tangible reforms to address the root causes of conflict and promote lasting peace and stability. Learning from both domestic and international experiences can help Ethiopia navigate the complexities of its transition and build a more inclusive and resilient society for future generations.