By: Goshu Melisew
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has released its seasonal climate forecast for the March-May (MAM) 2025 period, revealing a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across significant portions of the Greater Horn of Africa.
This announcement comes from the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 69).
The forecast indicates below-average rainfall is expected in much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and northeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania.
A particularly high probability of below-normal conditions exists in the cross-border areas of Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia, southern Eritrea, and parts of southwestern South Sudan. This is concerning given that the MAM season contributes up to 60% of the annual rainfall in many areas, the statement reads.
Conversely, wetter-than-normal conditions are anticipated in parts of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia. There is a high chance (over 70%) that seasonal rainfall will exceed 200 mm in southwestern Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
Temperature forecasts predict warmer-than-normal conditions across most of the region, with the highest probabilities (over 75%) observed in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya.
“The onset of the rainy season is expected to be early to normal in most areas, except for localized delays anticipated in central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central Somalia.”;said Fetene Teshome Director General of Ethiopian Metrology Agency.
IGAD urges governments and humanitarian organizations in the affected regions to utilize this forecast to prepare for potential drought conditions and take proactive measures to mitigate the impact on vulnerable populations and livelihoods.
Further details and regional breakdowns are available from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).