Analyst Zemdneh Negatu has highlighted the potentially pivotal position Ethiopia could occupy following the Trump administration's imposition of sweeping global tariffs (ranging from 10% to 50% across Africa). In his Twitter post, Zemdneh suggests Ethiopia may be among the beneficiaries, noting its relatively low existing tariffs.
The administration's new policy levies tariffs on nearly all trading partners. Within Africa, the rates vary significantly. While nations like Lesotho (50%), Madagascar (47%), and South Africa (30%) face steep increases, Ethiopia, along with Kenya and Ghana, received a comparatively low tariff of 10%.
According to the analysis presented by Zemdneh, this lower rate presents Ethiopia with "a unique opportunity to expand exports to the U.S." He points specifically to Ethiopia's significant investments in labor-intensive export industries, such as garments. With potential major competitors like Vietnam and Bangladesh facing hypothetical U.S. tariffs of 46% and 37% respectively under the new structure, Negatu suggests Ethiopian goods could gain a significant price advantage in the American market.
However, his post contrasts this potential opportunity with the "big challenges" facing other African nations. Countries burdened with tariffs as high as 50% could see their U.S. export markets severely damaged, potentially "decimating" entire industries reliant on price competitiveness, according to his assessment. He specifically named South Africa, Madagascar, and Mauritius as countries facing significant negative impacts that require urgent strategic rethinking.
The analysis shared by Zemdneh frames the Trump administration's actions as ushering in an "uncharted era" for globalization, forcing African nations to navigate a dramatically altered trade landscape. It also implicitly questions the ongoing relevance of trade frameworks like AGOA in light of such unilateral tariff measures.
While the full economic consequences remain to be seen, the scenario outlined by Zemdneh Negatu underscores the potential for significant shifts in trade flows and economic fortunes across Africa, with Ethiopia potentially positioned to gain a competitive edge under the new tariff regime.