A renowned scholar, Kaleb Demerew (PhD), Assistant Professor of Political Science at West Texas A & M University, argues that Ethiopia's pursuit of sea access is a matter of survival and national sovereignty, not a quest for power or regional domination.
Kaleb highlights the significant challenges faced by landlocked Ethiopia, a nation of 130 million people, with 90-95% of its commercial goods, many crucial for national security, reliant on a single, costly outlet through Djibouti. These exorbitant shipping costs and access fees pose an existential threat to Ethiopia's stability, development, and ability to maintain its national sovereignty.
Kaleb emphasizes the unique scale of Ethiopia's challenge compared to other landlocked nations.
According to the scholar, while the second most populous landlocked country has less than half of Ethiopia's population, and Uganda, another example, has less than 15 million, Ethiopia's sheer size necessitates reliable access to the sea.
This need, Kaleb argues, transcends political ambition; it is a fundamental requirement for national survival.
He draws a parallel with the Red Sea Council, dominated by coastal nations, excluding Ethiopia and other key stakeholders like the United Arab Emirates.
Using the adage, "If you're not at the table, you're on the menu," Kaleb suggests Ethiopia's absence from such regional dialogues could marginalize its interests and further compromise its access to the sea.
Contrary to concerns about potential regional destabilization, Kaleb believes Ethiopian sea access, whether through Somaliland or other agreements, could foster economic integration, increased trade, and shared prosperity within the Horn of Africa.
He urges Ethiopia to articulate its legitimate generational need for sea access effectively to the international community, emphasizing the potential consequences of continued landlocked status.
Kaleb suggests Ethiopia should present the international community with the potential scenario of a 130 million-person nation, the second largest in Africa, struggling for survival without reliable sea access over the next 15 years. This scenario, he posits, could lead to conflict and instability due to the inability to efficiently export goods and import essential resources.
Citing Jared Diamond's assertion that landlocked status is a "permanent, structural tax on development," Kaleb compares the anxieties experienced by nations facing a 10% tariff on imports and exports to the continuous burden of exorbitant shipping fees faced by Ethiopia.
This "permanent tax," he concludes, severely hampers Ethiopia's development and represents a significant structural constraint on its future.