Can Saudi Arabia really afford to wage an oil price war?

4 Yrs Ago
Can Saudi Arabia really afford to wage an oil price war?
Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman's Vision 2030 plan was already struggling before the kingdom declared an oil price war [File: Reuters]
 

It was the last thing a slowing global economy needed. 

With the coronavirus pandemic hammering international travel, supply chains and production, Saudi Arabia delivered another shock to the system by declaring an oil price war. 

On March 6, having failed to convince Russia to agree to deep production cuts aimed at shoring up crude prices against the demand destruction unleashed by coronavirus, Saudi Arabia-led OPEC retaliated by announcing it would start pumping crude with abandon.

The next day, the kingdom lowered the price it charges for oil. Come March 9, the markets delivered their verdict. Oil prices crashed 30 percent at one point - the biggest one-day drop since the 1991 Gulf War.

Though some of those losses were pared, announcements of pending production boosts next month by the kingdom and other Gulf producers ensured oil prices had their worst week since the 2008 financial crisis.

The price war is a gamble for the kingdom, one that could either pay off or land it in a deep hole.

Dramatically lower oil prices set up Saudi Arabia, which can produce oil more cheaply than any other country, to steal market share: both from the world's second-biggest oil producer-Russia-as well as higher-cost United States shale oil producers.

But analysts say it could come at a cost to Saudi Arabia and the ambitious plan of its de facto leader Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), to break the kingdom's oil-dependence and set it up for a more prosperous future.


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